Horn of Africa Regional Environment Center/Network

To register for this event please click on registration link under resource menu.

 Factsheet:  Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change in Africa      

Introduction

1. In global terms, the current African greenhouse gas emissions are relatively insignificant due to the low level of development and industrialisation. The entire continent is estimated to be responsible for less than 7% of global emissions and only about 4% of CO2 emissions. At the same time Africa is among the continents most vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Socioeconomic developments exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystems and humanity. So, though Africa hardly contributed to climate change it is hardest hit by its effects.

2. Agriculture alone accounts for about 70% of Africa’s labour force, and contributes to over 25% of its GDP. In some countries the latter could be even substantially higher. Despite the fact that Africa has abundant arable land and human resources that could potentially be translated into increased production, incomes and food security, it nevertheless remains a region that has the highest proportion of people who suffer from hunger, and the largest poverty head count ratio compared to all other developing regions. 

3. Between 1981 and 2005, the number of poor people living on less than $1.25 a day has almost doubled in sub-Saharan Africa, from 212 million in 1981 to over 388 million in 2005. The performance of the agricultural sector and the rural economy on which the majority of Africa’s population depend for their livelihoods, is directly linked to the state of poverty, and determines the extent to which MDG targets can be achieved. In this regard, the biggest challenge in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) lies in transforming Africa’s agricultural sector into an engine of economic growth and poverty reduction. 

4. In many African countries, the agricultural sector has stagnated and has not achieved its potential. Although agricultural performance has slightly improved since 2000, growth is not yet fast enough to achieve broad-based poverty reduction and food security. In many African countries, average annual agricultural growth  is less than 3 percent, which is far lower than  in other developing regions and significantly lower than the annual target of 6 percent that was agreed by African Union Heads of States Assembly in Maputo in 2003.

5. Compounding the slow growth in agriculture is a rapidly increasing population which is expected to reach 2 billion by 2050, up from 922 million in 2005. The high population growth rate combined with limited growth in agriculture could cause even more severe hunger and poverty, unless due attention is given to developing the agricultural sector. The soaring food prices, together with the recent global financial crisis have further raised concerns about food shortages and their implications for the poor in Africa. Increased food prices might create new opportunities for the African agricultural sector, but for these opportunities to materialize it requires removal of the barriers for achieving productivity and production increases, and improved market access. 

6. The challenges that Africa’s agriculture and rural economy face could broadly be categorized as follows:  (i) production and productivity-related challenges; (ii) infrastructure and market related challenges; (iii) environment related challenges; and (iv) institutional and policy related challenges.

7. Overall temperatures in Africa are expected to increase by two to six degrees Celsius by 2100 (Hulme et al 2001). Regional projections vary significantly. The temperatures in the drier subtropical regions are expected to increase more than those of the moist tropics. Mean annual rainfall is likely to decrease by 20% along the Mediterranean coast and extending into the northern Sahara, and to increase in tropical and eastern Africa by about 7% with more variable and extreme weather events. Western Africa is expected to see more rainfall variability and southern Africa less by 2100.

8. Effects of climate change will continue to challenge vulnerable people. Droughts and dry spells will be more frequent, rain more inconsistent, and torrential downpours heavier, all phenomena that increase the risk of erosion and vegetation damage through runoff. Higher temperatures will increase the evaporation of soil moisture. Climate change will aggravate all kind of stresses, which the continent is already experiencing: greater water stress, increased crops’ and livestock’s pests and diseases, and increased saltation of coastal areas.

9. FAO (2009a) projects that global agricultural production needs to grow by 70 percent by 2050. These projections are based on population and income growth assumptions as well as on dietary patterns. According to model studies 68% of the projected growth in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa will come from yield growth, 7 percent from increased cropping intensity and 25 percent from arable land expansion. These results highlight the potential tensions that may be created between the need to increase food production and the possible transition towards sustainable, low emission agriculture strategies if viable opportunities are not developed to enable meeting both goals.   

10. Although Africa is responsible for very little of the anthropogenic emissions of GHGs, it does have considerable potential to assist in mitigation through amongst others: sustainable land management practices and forestry. The technical mitigation potential of agriculture is high and 70 percent of this potential can be realized in developing countries.

11. At the moment Africa has not benefitted much from carbon credit instruments like the CDM: 2 percent of the total projects come from Africa. The reasons for this are that many of the cheapest means of reducing GHG emissions can be found in large-scale industrial enterprises in countries like China and India, where an innovative technology can prevent the escape of large amounts of GHG. African countries in this sense are not attractive as they have not been large polluters. The transaction costs and human capacity needed to put together a CDM project and getting it certified are also very high, so that it is only large-scale projects which are worth taking forward. (Toulmin, 2009)

12. Recognising these challenges, the African heads of States adopted the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development program (CAADP) as a framework to spearhead and accelerate agricultural and rural development in Africa. CAADP’s main objective is to assist African countries accelerate economic growth through agriculture-led development, which eliminates hunger, reduces poverty and enhances food and nutrition security as well as growth in exports. CAADP is implemented by NEPAD, a program of the African Union.

13. During the 13^th AU Summit in July 2009, the African Heads of States through a declaration on the Agriculture-Climate Change sub-theme urged the African Union Commission and NEPAD to act on three main issues, namely: (i) develop an African agricultural-based climate change mitigation and adaptation framework; (ii) Rally expert input and scientific knowledge to advance the recognition and integration of carbon sequestration on agricultural landscapes and carbon financing in global climate change mitigation and adaptation measures through the Post-Kyoto negotiations and other global-regional dialogue; and (iii) Establish an inter-Ministerial mechanism bringing together Ministries of Agriculture, Environment, and Water to advance inter-sectoral approach in addressing the climate change agenda.

To read more click on this